Scheer Walks In Ignatieff's Footsteps.

I once joked that if I was Prime Minister with both my parents serving as Chief of Staff and Principal Secretary, that I would fire both of them in a New-York-Minute if my polling went astray.

That's what Michael did as Liberal leader and now it's Andrew's turn. Of course, I remain consistent and am enthusiastically in favour.

However, is it also symptomatic of a leadership problem that will be difficult, if not impossible to mend? Unfortunately, that was the case with Ignatieff and likely will also be with Scheer.

Cleaning house internally is always good but can be indicative of a leadership that is highly likely to be unrecoverable.

That's certainly what happened with Michael and may very well be the case with Scheer.

Conservatives gathering next April have some serious thinking to do. But none of that will be effective without resolute, drastic action on leadership. Believe me. Conservatives just don't have what it takes to ditch Scheer and embrace Ambrose. Liberals in general, and Trudeau in particular, are no doubt counting exactly on that.

The Voters Are Always Right.

First off, I've been dealt quite a dose of humility as regards my strategic abilities: I'm very pleased with my BQ and GP projections but boy, did the NDP ever under perform. Wasn't expecting that.

This election is without a doubt a strategic vote in Ontario where people did whatever it took to keep the CPC out.

Well sure, the CPC likely won the popular vote but that only counts in horse shoes.

So, forgive me if I don't offer the CPC or NDP any advice.

But in the end, as a democrat, just got to say that voters are always right. Simply grateful that Trudeau was held to a minority.

And the great thing about this election: well, the wheels of government begin to turn once again tomorrow and that's always worth celebrating in a democracy.

Kinsella ON Bernier.

Isn't it so delightful to see the self-appointed self-righteous, who are quite naturally, absolutely in God's image and teachings going after Warren Kinsella with all they can muster. And those people, quite incredibly, have the unmitigated gall to attack Kinsella with every charge, accurate or more often, otherwise.

Get the picture folks! All of this comes out of Maxime Bernier's own positions and comments -- not to mention who he quite deliberately chooses to surround himself with politically. How many people do you know who are repeatedly photographed with racists who then, to my knowledge, do zip to condemn those photos and express regret for having been naive enough to agree to be photographed with just about anyone, or anything, that happens to come through the PPC's door?

No, sir or madam, this is not about attacking politicians -- or their staffs -- or even their war rooms. All of that is fair game. We all have opinions on politicians and those who politically surround them so why would any of us not be allowed to publicly express them, so long as they are not hateful?

So ironic to see people quite willingly demonize others while at the same time giving absolutely no quarter to those who happen to do the exact same thing, via similar techniques, against their own leader...and the leaders themselves, from several parties, are no better. There are absolutely no angels in this race, only a pathetic unfortunate collection of liars, con-artists and sanctimonious prigs.

Then what about those who either by deliberate action, or unintended misinformation, go way off in left field with bogus charges such as:

that some people having allegedly attacked Wynne, when nothing of the kind ever happened. In Kinsella's case, he consistently challenged those around her as regards their political abilities, and yes, did not always have kind words for them as individuals, but he always treated Wynne with respect and repeatedly reminded readers that he long liked her personally. That's the reality.

Others, quite incredibly, denounce those who put out "negative" energy. But they are both selective and intentionally hypocritical as to who gets to be the intended target of their more or less credible political animus: no outcry against Justin Trudeau on Harper, Scheer, Ford, Kenney, Higgs and the list goes on and on...a far cry from when his father rebuked him for having mildly criticized Clark in his youth. Nothing to say about that. Ditto for Andrew Scheer and his minions who delight in personally tearing off a Trudeau strip with every breath taken. All of the above is absolutely peachy, as long as your guy is the one doing it. Thus, the politicians are entitled to an automatic pass but not Kinsella. No, no, he's the strategic devil incarnate who goes out of his way to do what no other Canadian, in or out of politics, has ever done...mind-numbing hypocrisy.

And what to say about the clearly mentally ill? As someone who suffers from it myself, my first reaction, of course, is one of compassion. Next is a hope that they will find peace and quickly get effective and often-times, life-saving treatment. Finally, to those people and all others I would say, take a real deep breath before posting personalized hate because a highly competent solicitor is inevitably, right around the corner.

Many people lately have amply demonstrated what it is to be truly Canadian. Others not. Just glad I instinctively knew which side to fall back on.

Day Eighteen: THIS IS THE ONLY ELECTION ISSUE!

What counts is what’s in an individual VOTER’s fond intérieur. If they feel exactly as I do and then go vote, the Liberals are toast. It’s not so much that Trudeau is a political phoney — it’s more that Trudeau knows precisely that he’s a phony but he’s absolutely determined to laugh at all of us by acting like he isn’t even remotely one.

Warren!?

Can the 2018 midterms be sustained with Warren as Democratic nominee? Talking highly theoretical here but remember that young people turned out in droves and flipped not only the House but also a slew of governorships.

If the 2018 trend holds, Warren could be the next Obama. That's not by any means the traditional voting paradigm -- far from it. In most elections, conservatives and older Americans carry the day for Republicans. But this ain't 2016, is it?

So, I'm cautiously optimistic about Warren. If real, progressive, significant change comes to the United States, it will arrive largely because of younger voters.

They hold much of the power and if they use it practically in unison, then the America of tomorrow will be demonstrably different than the country of today.

Day Nine: A Day That Leaves You Almost Speechless.

To his credit, this Prime Minister quickly offered an apology -- the exact nature of which is being intensely debated and criticized across the political spectrum.

But when all is said and done, one hopes that most people will accept it and allow Trudeau to seek redemption.

That's point one.

For mere mortals -- or if you prefer flawed human beings -- to deliberately get hot and heavy over this is at least hypocritical. You all know about people living in glass houses, etc.

I don't consider myself even remotely suitable to judge others as regards this type of behaviour. I would also apply that assessment to the rest of you. Our faiths teach us a number of common things, more particularly:

An allusion to an utterance of Jesus' in John 8:7, viz. “He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her.”

Then, there's also this from the Holy Father:

“Who am I to Judge ?.”


Now on to point two: which is entirely separate from self-appointing oneself as moral arbiter of a given transgression. Political accountability is altogether a horse of a different colour. This is where Canadians, quite properly, can and should have their say.

Taken as acts by the highest political actor in the land, it's easy to see why Trudeau must make amends, namely, because his job is not only to represent all Canadians but also to serve as a reflection of same.

In strict political terms, this PM has failed us. One would think that a prolonged round of self-introspection would reveal the way forward. I can't imagine any Prime Minister wanting to continue as leader of his party under such circumstances. In his place, I would certainly resign.

But then again, it's not for us to force a resignation. Trudeau is accountable first and foremost to his own conscience, then to God, if he deems that appropriate and finally, to the Canadian people. If he stays on as leader, he has to expect a considerable negative reaction at the ballot box.

That's where selflessness ultimately comes in: does he really want to put his party in such a position and likely take them straight down into the abyss? Are members and supporters going to be made to pay a political price right along with him? Only Trudeau can work this through and decide.

Whatever course he chooses, it will ring in the history books. He would do well to keep that in mind during his deliberations.

Day Six: Trudeau Takes Questions Today But...

Trudeau won't take questions every day during this campaign like Harper did last time.

And that's smart cause every time he opens his mouth on SNC, he only digs deeper this government's grave.

Day Five: Trudeau The Retail Politician.

You all know what I think about Trudeau and his PMO gang. To ask that question is to answer it. But what I want to know is what's Broadhurst's input in the LPC re-election strategy? What's his take on going with the retail politician strategy?

Broadhurst is a guy that I naturally fear politically because he hasn't endlessly bumbled his way through the Trudeau tenure like those of them in the PMO.

Let's start with the positive: Trudeau's basically a born natural at it. To watch the footage in Saint-Tite, or at Timmy's, is to behold the Justin magic at work. People are incredibly emotional, enthusiastic and basically positive -- in spite of what's been in the news since caucus (read Trudeau) gave JWR and JP the heave-ho.

Those people are with him and would probably walk over hot coals for this Prime Minister. They don't care what Trudeau's done, or not done, they like the guy and would be only too pleased to see the PM returned come October. Add to all this the fact that Trudeau has the guts to show up with his daughter in tow says something. He's confident, going into the campaign.

Now for the negative: worldliness and charm only takes you so far in an election. This ain't Trudeaumania 1968. Conservatives are within striking distance and the day is young as far as campaigns go. Trudeau has broken promises and been incredibly creative in his responses about SNC, Norman and the like. In short, outright lying has not been an absent factor in the election so far. 

So, to put it in a 2015 context, why did Trudeau and the Liberals come from third place to win government? That's the key right there as to whether the retail politics strategy will pay huge dividends this time.

It can only cut ice in one of two ways: either people basically fell in love with Trudeau and hurdled themselves precipitously to the polls in an avalanche to get him elected OR they had come to so dislike and despise Harper that they were pretty much prepared to put anyone else in the PM's chair. 

The final interesting element is that Trudeau now has a record that can best be described as some successes mitigated by other failures.

What it all boils down to in 2019 is whether most voters want Trudeau in or out. The race remains competitive with Liberals slightly ahead cause a lot of people still like Justin Trudeau. But how much of the Liberal vote will actually turn out next month? It's a safe bet to say that numbers won't be anywhere near what the party got in 2015.

If the vote rush remains positive, Liberals get another term in office. But if the angry, disillusioned and dissatisfied show up at the polls, it's all over with the CPC winning big. The latter is my sense of voting intentions as of now, but things could change.

In any event, you the voter have a decision to make -- and no matter how it plays out, democracy is always right. That's the best part about Canada.

  

Day Four: The TRUDEAU Game Plan: Playing Canadians For Fools.

Let's cut right to the chase: Trudeau thinks Canadians are gullible saps who are prepared to swallow any bullshit that comes out of his mouth.

Because that's the Trudeau plan, it automatically becomes by prime ministerial fiat the Liberal one.

You see, Justin Trudeau is so much more clever than the rest of us -- just flash those baby blues and broad smile and we're supposed to swallow any and all of his bullshit.

That's why the PM remains allergic to questions  -- not to mention deliberately muzzling parliamentary institutions and the national police force.

Trudeau can't come clean to the RCMP on SNC and Norman cause it would cost him his job. No one knows that better than Mr. Razzmatazz.

Trudeau thinks Canadians are nothing more than his useful idiots. We're supposed to swallow what he did to JWR and JP without question.

But I've got news for the PM: voters don't like it and won't merely sit by and take it. No, sir.

Canadians are going to get off their asses and vote. We'll collectively deliver to him a message he'll never forget on election day.

The Trudeau BS no longer cuts ice with most of us. So, we'll vote and kick this PM's ass to the curb. No one deserves it more than Justin Trudeau.

Just So We're Clear.

I won't be drawn into an extended pissing contest over at Warren's place, or anywhere else, by quasi-desperate Liberal surrogates.

Instead, I'll call 'em like I see 'em, just as I did four years ago.

Day Two: Housing Affordability.

Trudeau wins the day because he's at least seen as doing something nationally as regards housing affordability, especially in markets such as Vancouver and Toronto where many can only dream of one day buying their first home. Killing, or at least dampening the speculator's market is awfully good politics.

Meanwhile, pundits concentrate on a debate where Trudeau is AWOL, that probably almost no one watches.

Day One: Just How Much Are YOU Prepared To Swallow?

First, my obvious bias: you'll recall that last time the blog's title said it all. In 2019, I'm urging people to throw Trudeau out in the wake of his MPs kicking JWR and JP out of caucus. And that means voting CPC, something I never expected I would have to resort to for years to come.

So, here we go!

Trudeau's Liberals not so coincidentally got in the first punch as regards JWR's alleged partner's travel expenses. It was an obvious smear job ahead of the writ drop. Doubt it gets traction.

Next came the clumsy attempt at blaming PCO for federal witness restrictions re: RCMP and Ethics Commissioner investigations. The PMO claimed PCO was merely serving as guardian of cabinet confidence. Right. PMO also assured us they had nothing to do with it. Right, again. I know they think Canadians are gullible doofuses but Trudeau will quickly discover we're not.

The day closed with word that the RCMP once again interviewed JWR yesterday. As an aside, the RCMP will follow standard operating procedure and suspend its investigation until after the vote.

Scheer immediately went on the offensive saying Trudeau had lost the moral authority to govern. Too sanctimonious, for a start.

Meanwhile, Trudeau had almost nothing to say about SNC while at Rideau Hall. No surprise there. In his place, I'd shut up too...

Finally, what Day One tells us is it's still amateur hour around Scheer and that the Liberal War Room can't be credibly believed in a month of Sundays.

There you have it. What do you think?

The Mooch Is On Target.

People might want to dismiss what he said about Trump's alleged cognitive decline but hey, a picture says a thousand words. Sadly.

You don't have to like Trump but would anyone seriously wish this on him, or anyone else? I hope not cause what goes around, comes around. That karma boomerang can be really nasty, to use a Trump euphemism.

I'm no doctor but Trump doesn't look well and not just physically. The fire is gone and he appears to be struggling as time passes.

What it gets down to is whether this President can get through 2020 -- never mind win. I, like Scaramucci, don't think that's real anymore.

They'll attack the messenger and ignore the message. Sure, The Mooch has a pretty obvious axe to grind but so does Trump.

So, as a good Republican, he warns and maybe roots for a well-financed party challenger.

What's left unsaid is glaringly obvious: how would Republicans do with Pence at the top of the ticket? Here's a hint: think of lemmings enthusiastically running right off that cliff.

No one's probably figured that out better than Scaramucci.

It's Not About Trudeau Or Trump: It's All About YOU!

Like I said over at Warren's place, we get the government we deserve by remaining silent, or not taking action as the change-agent.

What it all comes down to is the type of society we want to live in and promote: most of us were either inculcated or have developed certain fundamental values.

Trudeau senior was on the right path with his Just Society. A baby step taken is to realize that we should treat other people how we hope to be treated. Then we should try as best we can to conduct our lives with honour and decency.

Nothing less should be expected from our leaders: they should be a mirror reflection of the kind of society we value and hope to live in. They should work for the people, not themselves.

It should be for the common good, not all about them, their wishes, desires and an endless drive at self-serving promotion.

The collective should be the priority: making our world a little better than we found it, one day at a time.

In short, if politicians go out of their way not to live up to your personal ideals, then fucking turf them.

That's what Trudeau and Trump have in common, a narcissistic drive for it to be all about them. Never mind the rule of law or other elected representatives -- no, no, it's always their way or the highway.

They're in it for themselves, period. They are never wrong and an opposition never right. And they have this view, Dear Reader, that you ought to just go along with anything. They know better than you do, so remain silent and fall into line, like good saps.

My message: say Hell No! and take the battle to them. Give as good as you get but fight with everything that you've got for change, positive change, that will help put the country back on its right path again.

No one ever has to agree with any or all governments. But make it your goal in life that it at least reflects your view of a decent, honourable, caring, compassionate world that reflects the country's ideals and higher angels. That's what we should demand at the ballot box.

Never, ever, remain silent. Vote, not only your political beliefs but most especially as a reflection of your personal values.

Think of the type of country you want and can admire -- and then make IT happen on voting day.

When Bluff Triumphs Over Sanity.

Boris Johnson. The man who has left no Briton indifferent. A triumph of bluff and bluster over political sanity as the public eagerly eats it all up.

Boris has reason to be confident: Corbyn is literally despised and many find the new prime minister, at the very least, amusing if not entirely practical.

No one is joking in Whitehall though chuckles are likely aplenty at Number 10. The BREXIT show must go on, and damn the torpedoes! Johnson is not known for advocating for anything in particular, hence does he really want a soft-Brexit or nothing at all?

And so the Brussels dance continues with Boris' magical contortions, whether based in reality or pure fiction.

Right now, the bluff is on to get Brussels to say uncle and cough up a better leave-deal. Tell that to May, only slightly more credible in EU circles.

The Boris election magic is now set to erupt on October 17 -- the very day that the European Council deliberates on a better deal. Seemingly, either way, that will be voting day in Britain.

The UK has fallen for the greatest act since Reagan: testament to Boris' sudden twelve point polling lead. Sounds rather emboldening.

But can recent history be your guide? Depends on why May whittle downed her majority. Was it because of an early election or did people not like either the messenger and/or the message? Probably a combination of all three.

But Boris is nothing if not panache's anointed representative. That's why the polls moved. Can he get a deal? Maybe, if the EU has more to lose on October 31 than Britain.

The Boris Bluff has the luxury of carrying with it the fluidity of true convictions. No one knows what Johnson will do under any scenario.

Talk only takes you so far. However, it's managed to get Boris into Downing Street. The vote might result in a comfortable majority.

Not too shabby when you're all icing and no cake. Stranger things in politics have been known to happen.

What Trump Really Gets About His 2020 Playbook.

Two things about Trump: not exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer but up until now strategically brilliant tactics-wise.

It's dishonourable to play a quite deliberate fear card against immigrants or nation-states but it fucking works!

It's catering to our worse angels and it not only consolidates but also expands the base. Plus those people can literally be counted on on voting day. So, looks great for re-election cause more people dislike or hate Trump but lots don't vote. (Just ask Hillary about Bernie's people's turn out. But I digress.)

Where Trump starts literally sweating is if the Goldilocks economy goes south -- coupled with an inverted yield curve. Both of those are now
R-E-A-L-I-T-Y so Trump had better start shitting.

That's the giant elephant in the room and no one feels it more than Trump. He's got no choice but to keep taking on China (and others) but he can see the electoral dividends slowly slipping away.

His good friend Xi is not an actual reformer and will do whatever it takes to stay in power. Xi is all about maintaining Communist Party totalitarian control and Trump can do zip about that.

That's why Hong Kong will be the next Tiananmen Square. Xi is no Zhao.  Far from it. He's all Li, on steroids. Xi is no different on tariffs. He's not about to lose face, much less capitulate to Trump's demands. That ain't good news for the already flailing Trump approval rating.

Essentially, that's the fly in the tactics ointment. 2020 isn't, in Republican circles, the lead-pipe-cinch of yesteryear.  No panicking yet but plenty of sleepless nights ahead for the re-election team.

And you thought God didn't have an ironic sense of humour. Trump pretty much knows that one better than anyone else too.

Were You Idiotic Enough To Make Close Enemies?

Close friendships need to be nurtured and cherished. That's how you sometimes save your political ass. Mutual respect, accommodation and appreciation always goes a long way in cementing the ties that bind.

But when you start to deliberately lie, withhold facts and limit access, you turn what was once golden into lead.

Crisis management is never helped by taking a red flag out and waving it in everyone's face. Those are the tactics of fools.

Everyone has ambition and a drive to be upwardly mobile. Throw freezing water on that at your own peril. In every crisis there comes a breaking point where personal drive and future prospects are ceded in favour of at least setting the record straight. That time is now.

For an oaf who turned friends into blood enemies, the price will be positively stratospheric -- in a few short months the other shoe will drop and it will be utterly devastating. It will positively destroy the idiot and take his minions with him. The fool had a clear choice. Instead he chose the path straight to political suicide. As he's about to discover: [R]evenge is a dish best served cold.

Trudeau: Do You Want People To Think You're An Idiot?

I don't get fumed very often in politics but this Prime Minister's stroll down Saint-Denis Street yesterday really did it for me.

What the hell was he thinking casually jaunting down the street, seemingly without any RCMP security detail protection?

It's one thing not to have a high regard for your own safety -- foolish as that may be -- but it's quite another to theoretically leave a family without a spouse and father. That's the big picture that really matters...in short, don't ever pull that stunt again while you're still in office. You may regard Montreal and Vancouver as your own safe turf but that type of careless risk should never be taken, without adequate protection, while serving as PM. Someone needs to read Trudeau the Riot Act, or better yet, scream at the top of your lungs.

Kinsella Does The Math: Expects Liberal Win.

I just read Kinsella in The Toronto Sun: he's done the math and expect a Liberal win.

Remember when I said quite a ways back that I have the most fun when we disagree (like on Van Jones) so here it goes: I don't think Kinsella's piece is full of shit -- far from it. Rather, I think he's too much in the electoral and polling weeds.

My contention remains that people overwhelmingly want change, period. And in my book, that means at the top of the ticket. They've given Trudeau his chance and he's been found wanting. End of story. Might turn out I'm full of shit but don't think so.

The next vote will be a change election -- not a who do I like the best contest (like most times) and that means Justin is in very serious trouble.

I think Trudeau loses and I chock it up to a degrading effect: people are disillusioned and disappointed to find out that Justin's low expectations were pretty much on target.

Translation: Scheer ain't as bright as Harper or as relatively politically savvy but what counts is he isn't Trudeau.

Clark won a minority in 79 and Scheer will best that. Put another way, the CPC and Scheer will get in, despite himself.

The public wants change. Logic follows most voters also do. So, my gut expects a sea change in federal politics. Just call it a Conservative majority. Another country simply tilting further right -- in that Canadian sort of way.

I Didn't Break With The Liberals For This.

Don't get me wrong, I've absolutely no regrets for breaking with the Trudeau Liberals. Ditto when I broke with the Harper Conservatives.

I've got my view of Canada, and more importantly, how a federal government should conduct itself and in my book, both Trudeau and Harper were found wanting. You all know why I broke with the CPC: my personal dislike for Harper not to mention a profound disagreement with much of his overly right policies.

With Trudeau, I actually liked the guy even if Garneau was my choice for leader. So, I got on board in 2015 and pretty much didn't look back. But then came the El Supremo prime ministerial test which Trudeau utterly failed by not putting caucus in its place. JWR and JP had resigned from cabinet and that should have been it. Their resignations were on principle and should have been respected by this Prime Minister. You know the rest of the story.

But as I've already suggested elsewhere, I didn't break with Trudeau to watch JWR be too cute by half: she knows precisely what the prime ministerial motivation was in pressuring her as AG. Let her and JP get on the record and speak that part of their truth. Enough of this bullshit of well, you'd have to ask them about their motivations. Please, get real.

What I want from JWR and JP is the whole story, not just the parts that put them in a good light or play to their version of the narrative. I want to hear from them the good, bad, ugly and most especially, their own mistakes that they have come to regret. That's how your star rises in politics.

It's too simple to brand them as the good guys and Trudeau as, succinctly, bad. What Trudeau did was wrong and he knows it. Frankly, taping the Clerk wasn't so hot an idea either. There are no angels in this story, only flawed human beings.

What I want from all of them is forthcoming and truthful disclosure, not shaded answers and oral tactical manoeuvring.

Are any of them living up to that standard? NO. It would be nice, not to mention refreshing, if politicians could Just Once, perform beyond my expectations. Sadly, I know I had better not hold my breath in the interim...

Why Trump Will Never Be Indicted.

In a sentence, it's called respect for legal precedent. That's why Mueller agreed that a sitting president could not be indicted.

Now, let's move to the next phase: not only did Mueller not recommend indictment but he did not make a determination as to whether Trump committed a crime. It's not a case of but for.

Then take a look at precedent in recent cases: remember that Articles of Impeachment were prepared in the House but were not voted on to actually impeach Nixon. Nixon resigned before that could happen and was pardoned by Ford.

But here's the Mother of All Precedents: think back to Clinton's testimony in the Paula Jones Deposition. All Clinton remembered was that Lewinsky brought pizza to the White House. Couldn't recollect anything else clearly.

Then move the clock forward to his answering the Starr team's questions in the White House Map Room: in a prepared opening statement, Clinton acknowledged he had indeed been alone with Lewinsky in the Oval Office and his OO private study. That was a direct admission to perjury and obstruction of justice in the Jones Deposition.

But what ultimately happened? Clinton was impeached by the House but acquitted at trial in the Senate. So, Clinton got to serve out his term.

Where the rubber hits the road is the role precedent played once Clinton left office. The former president was never charged with a crime for his previous testimony. That was precedent at work. No American President, or former president, has ever been indicted on criminal charges.

And so it will be in Trump's case, once he's out of office. The fix is already in. Only politicians are wasting their time arguing over something that will never happen.

It's called a respect for precedent.

Butts Is Back.

Can you believe it? I never thought I would see a party sink so low as to reject with a wave of the hand all the legitimate objections made to the way this government handled important files.

Don't those people recognize that they went down because of their own conduct? Canadians, being essentially fair-minded, decided to some degree to put all of this behind them. That's why the Liberals rebounded in the polls -- especially in Ontario, what with all of the Ford fatigue.

But this move is a big Fuck You to any and everyone who took the Trudeau government to task. Yes, it's Laurentian Elite thinking of the worst order. This is merely a reflection of pure political entitlement -- of nothing but contempt for Canadians and utter disregard for likely voters.

Trudeau is actually on board with this type of disastrous thinking. What will be their reaction when they once again tank in the polls? Do they, to any extent, see it coming -- not to mention envision it as a distinct possibility? No. They're clueless and inept.

And that will be their lasting legacy, as they themselves do more than anything Conservatives can do to put Scheer in the PM's chair.

They've made their political bed with this whopper. Let 'em lie in it. It's well deserved.

K-I-N-S-E-L-L-A.

For starters, Kinsella wanted to be a candidate and he should be. There's nothing preventing him from effectively being both aspiring candidate and Green Room Guy. So, right off the top, I question May's judgment and political savvy.

Moving on. I hope Kinsella can make Elizabeth see sense: you can't have a truly effective and worthwhile War Room if you don't go on offense. The mentality must ALWAYS BE scorched earth -- but there are ways to deliver the punches and counter punches with an iron fist in a velvet glove.

No one is better at that than Warren. So, the  announcement is a mixed bag of a lot of good news coupled with some astonishing disappointment.

But one thing's for sure: let Kinsella at 'em and they'll never be the same, politically.

If nothing else, it'll be a riot to watch him in action. May the fun begin!

From Throw Trudeau Out To STOP ANDREW SCHEER???

Personal Bias: I won't be voting Liberal for reasons pretty much everyone already knows.

But take a look at ABACUS:

First, Trudeau's personal polling number is still underwater at -46% but get this: he comes in as Preferred Prime Minister with a positive rating of 35%. That's highly significant.

Another gem: 34% of Conservatives might switch and vote for Bernier's PPC. That ain't doing Scheer and the CPC no favours.

Now to the heart of political supposition: Conservative/Liberal Switchers cancel each other out at 21% each. Then there's this: 39% of NDP supporters might vote Liberal, while for the Greens, it's 27%. Meanwhile, although 41% of Liberals might switch (33% for the CPC), 43% of New Democrats and 53% of Greens might change their vote on voting day.

So, what have we got here? It's only one poll, but it tells me that we're in the process of going from Throw the Trudeau-Liberals Bums Out to Anybody But Scheer's Conservatives. That suggests Trudeau is still liked, on some level, one hell of a lot more than Martin was in 2006. In my mind, Harper should be seen as far more contentious than Scheer. However, that's apparently not what's happening.

Again, it's only one poll, but in my book Scheer and the CPC are already in very serious political trouble. Scheer needs to win every debate and he's got to win each one big. Otherwise, Trudeau and the LPC are likely back in power, if this becomes the trend and holds right up until election day.

The Democratic Double-Edged Curse.

Let's start with Biden: I'm for Joe but I'm actually sentient. You know, aware of my surroundings and what's happening in my own party. So, I'm one up on Biden.

The guy's stuck in a time warp, defending his position on crime bills and busing -- not to mention -- apologizing for things that happened ages ago. None of it is good politically.

When Biden says he's changed -- he's fucking right, of course he has but that's simply not good enough for today's activist Democrats. The party has moved on to the radical left and left Biden in the dust. That's reality. In their heart of hearts, they're already ready to nominate AOC, but they can't because she's only 29.

Biden is clueless that Nixon got it right: run hard toward the base and then move to the center in the general. That's the only way he gets the nomination, period. In short, he can stay centrist and lose, if he wants too. That's the AOC-inspired Democratic Curse, Part I.

Part II is killing Sanders. Bernie has all the right progressive cred and has already earned the nomination. But again, the party's in love with AOC. Sanders is yesterday's liberal news -- which explains why Sanders is not in the top two for fund raising.

So, expect a sudden breakout from the pack and a nominee who barely gets above the Article II constitutional requirements.

Under those circumstances, Trump's goose would normally be cooked. But remember, it ain't only about the 3 million more votes Hillary got. It's also about winning in enough states to take the Electoral College.

That can only mean trouble in River City for Democrats come 2020. Once they have a nominee, for Christ's sake, V-O-T-E, cause I can guarantee you that 99% of Trump supporters definitely will.

It's Called Bye, Bye, Bolton.

Expect Bolton to be gone within days or weeks. Too funny. The Administration's leading hawk basically having a hissy fit because Trump does his own thing and goes his own way (like that is something new).

For starters, the U.S. position on complete denuclearization is diplomatic pie in the sky -- unless you are prepared to go to war to achieve that end. Here's the news flash: Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump weren't prepared to do that.

Sanctions are a joke, no matter how robust, because they can cripple the DPRK's economy but that will never make them bend to complete denuclearization.

So, the freeze is an interesting idea, provided that top-notch international inspections are part of the deal. But a freeze is just that, a freeze. It is in no way a precursor to denuclearization talks.

If Trump is willing to permanently settle for a freeze, it's a huge win. If it's seen by the Administration as some kind of a stepping stone to full denuclearization, then Trump has been played and it's a disaster. You can't kick this can further down the road if both countries agree to a freeze, cause a freeze is the end as far as the DPRK is concerned, should such an agreement actually come about.

Carney?

Let's start out with the obvious: this is a recycled potential political orgasm from yesteryear -- been there, seen that.

Equally obvious: Trudeau's got lots of enemies, party wise. You know, those known as The Outs. They're the so-called wise movers and shakers pushing this.

Carney's ego aside-- hence no quick talking down of a lead balloon -- this gang wants back in to trough feed. Plain and simple.

But bringing in a political neophyte makes absolutely no sense. We painfully learned that with Michael. Even Trudeau was a more seasoned parliamentarian and look how things turned out. From political rock star to likely electoral dud. But Trudeau is smart enough to rightly blame himself.

What we require is a transitional leader who can take the reins in government with a public pledge to only serve one PM mandate. We need time in office for an obvious future leader to emerge.

In short, we've got to find a battle-scarred fighter with a statesman's allure and know how. Again, transition is key to get us the right leader two elections down the road.

Liberals must accept pending defeat. Then move on quickly to a solid transitional figure who can caretaker the party through its next evolution, past the Trudeau loss.

Scheer is easily beatable one election from this one. Liberals should carefully survey the field and pick the best person.

I know who I have in mind. But what about you? And her or his name certainly isn't Carney.

2020: Democrats Can Be Right OR Win The White House.

I stand full square with Pelosi on impeachment. At best, it's a public relations exercise, not an effective method for removing a president. It's only in the tool box for if, or when, public opinion turns on the chief executive. But again, it won't lead to removal thanks to the Senate.

Fucking Democrats are already on the path to blowing it: political success isn't about proper channels, strategies or methods. It's ALL about results.

Right now, Democrats need to get it in their collective head that Trump just won re-election in 2020. He did it by threatening Mexico with tariffs and pushing them to the wall on immigration. That's how Trump won, if 2020 was yesterday.

And what do the damned Democrats do? They don't get on the bandwagon and recognize that a win is a win, period...

Trump is all wrong on practically everything but he gets the wins! Yes, for Christ sakes, this is not how diplomacy and foreign relations should be done. Yes, removing third country aid to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras is absolutely the wrong thing to do but all of that is neither here nor there politically.

One hell of a lot of voters see this immigration agreement as a reason to re-elect Trump. I laughed my ass off when Trump said Mexico would pay for The Wall. Even that, is now firmly in the realistic realm of possibilities. And should Trump get that, it's all over, regardless of which Democrat faces Trump in 2020.

CTV: You Guys Are A Riot!

JWR and JP re-joining the Liberals. Now, that's funny.

Not going to happen in the next five years.

Trump: A Political Empath Who Wins When And Where It Counts.

That's the only thing I've got in common with Trump. But it's fucking big.

Let me tell you why and then deconstruct Trump. The older I get, the more channelled in I am and the better my predictions become.

When I heard about Mexican tariffs,  I got one hell of a flash: it told me that last Thursday was basically the day Trump wrapped up 2020. No matter who the Democrats put forward, even Biden, who I support, they are done.

Here's why: the election won't be about a good or bad economy, or even Trump personally. What will turn the tide and win a second term are today's hot button issues, namely, perceived reverse racism and immigration. That's what will get Trump another win.

Today's politics has nothing to do with the obvious: the twin fallacies of actual reverse racism and immigrants as economic threat. Instead, we live in a twilight zone where perceptions are king-- and pay off in spades politically.

You no longer have to be gifted intellectually to be president. Nor consistently rational. Today's president is all about stirring up and stoking emotion-- more often than not, based only on perceived reality.

Trump's move on Mexican tariffs is nothing short of tactical brilliance. Ditto for China. I can't tell you how many votes that gets him. Use the logic or economic paradigms and it makes absolutely no sense. But follow your raw, empathic, political instincts and it scores a home run!

What Jared and others don't get is that 2020 is all about hot button issues and an ever growing insularity across America. Trump knows it. It's not the policy of high angels, or even what's right, but it's the course that will get Trump re-elected.

I laughed when Trump thought he was right on North Korea. I'm not laughing now. IF the impossible can be pulled off, it will be done by none other than Trump. Literally no one expects that. But then, very few thought Trump would end up president.

Scheer Being Stupid...

Look Andrew, Unifor ain't on the bailout panel because it loves Liberals and hates Conservatives. Sure, most of their members are NDP or Liberals but that is neither here nor there.

They are on it because the union represents journalists, you know, their          M-E-M-B-E-R-S.

Give me a break!

The Final Accounting Is Coming.

It will come in the form of an absolutely extraordinary non-recoverable cardiac event.

And it will change everything politically across the globe.

For one man, the chains of destiny are not far off.

JWR And JP.

They have a choice: go for their principles, or power.

That means either the NDP or CPC. However, conventional wisdom and the rumour mill has them moving to the Greens instead.

With the Greens, I could easily see them as part of a wave that elects enough MPs to get party status. But certainly not government. Totally inadequate ground organisation to pull that off.

My money is on the NDP. We'll find out on Monday! Can't wait.

Post-May.

I'm very sad to see May go. She quits as party leader on June 7 and will resign as PM at the end of July.

People need to get it into their heads that not only did May quite literally bust her ass, but that no one, including the Almighty, can get a better deal out of the EU than she did. It's easy to vote every single thing down in Parliament.

Juncker, Tusk, Et Al. are on the record: no one is going to get a better deal, period.  So expect no deal in the end. And prepare for Britain's departure in October cause it will happen, even with no deal.

History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. That got us Trump and an assorted cast of right-wing characters in power. That's why Johnson is in the race -- and why he'll win hands-down.

Johnson takes them out in October and then slowly but surely there will be hell to pay with the British public. But between now and then, Johnson has voters locked up.

Johnson is the wrong person, at the right place and time. That's why he's the United Kingdom's next prime minister. Good help Britain.

McGahn And Sekulow.

Jesus Murphy. Apparently, McGahn won't even show up to testify before the House. This is the former White House counsel.

Is he not aware that a State bar will not look too kindly at ignoring a Congressional subpoena. The correct decision is to at least show up.

Then let him claim Executive Privilege or take the 5th. But to do this is beyond stupid.

Trump says he never did anything wrong. Then why is he fighting all subpoenas? That legal opinion is beyond bogus -- it's absolute bullshit.

This makes Trump look like he's desperate. You can't say Trump has got plenty to hide but you can't say that he doesn't either.

Congress won in court on taxes today. Expect a lot more. The case law is crystal clear,  ironically enough, a favourite expression of none other than Nixon. Expect the same result repeatedly in court as Nixon got, cause it's going to happen.

And just wait until the House moves on to Sekulow.

Vance.

Vance says he owns it. Not pressure by the PM or Minister.

Given the stay and reimbursement of legal fees, shouldn't Vance resign?

So Trudeau Supports The Norman Motion.

I don't know about you but it seems that when you support something, you say it before hitting the trail.

How about during members' statements -- or before Raitt introduced the motion? Don't you look ridiculous post-event issuing a statement of support? Sure, Liberals would not have voted in favour if the Prime Minister was against but jeez, this comes off as amateurish to say the least.

I'm Stupid!

Colour me stupid! Someone, pretty please, explain how the Norman charge can be stayed while also agreeing to reimburse him for his legal fees?

I must have fallen asleep in Sheer Logic Class...

Booker.

My God, Cory is nothing if not formidable. You know how O'Dowd's Political Law winces when they say: When I'm...

But with Booker, it really sounds both possible and strangely enough, credible. That's a FIRST for me.

Watch Booker. He's seemingly coming out of almost nowhere in this campaign.

Is a Booker presidency possible? It looks increasingly likely to this observer. No longer a no-go on the ground, if the United States gets to truly know this candidate for president. There's a raw determination there that's stealth-like, compared to the 21 others.

Is It Sinking In Justin?

You used to be good at tapping into people's feelings -- not to mention genuine empathy.  You knew where most people were at and what to do about it. Not anymore.

What's that? Is it five or six polls that reflect reality?

They don't like you on SNC. They won't like you even more on Norman when it comes to light what the denizens in the PMO were up to...

Practically nobody but your subordinates agrees with you on JP and JWR. With each poll, you only dip down further.

Has it finally sunk in yet that failing to reverse course on so many matters is a recipe for political disaster?

Get this: you're going down without JWR and JP on your side. Nothing is plainer to see politically.

You're lucky to have a clear choice: return these remarkable people to the fold or meet your day of reckoning  in a calamity that will make Dion or Ignatieff's take look good.

It's truly sad that you'll make the wrong decision -- because you always do lately.

Quite simply, you can't help yourself.

Why All These Polls Are SNC Polls, Not Ordinary Polls.

If the Léger Poll was indicative of traditional opinion polls, hope would still spring eternal for Liberals, as theoretically all polls are recoverable up until voting day.

But the Léger poll is only the first of what I would term the SNC-Lavalin polls. These polls reflect Trudeau's self-inflicted wounds -- no one but this Prime Minister is directly responsible for the Liberal slide -- Trudeau and Trudeau alone gets to wear this decline.

Léger puts Liberal support at 27 percent with Conservatives leading with 40 percent. The NDP is at 12 percent with Greens one point behind. The People's Party has 3 percent support.

In addition, Conservatives are ahead in every region except for Quebec. Thanks to Trudeau's own decisions, 65 percent of respondents are dissatisfied with this government. Ditto for best prime minister where Scheer leads Trudeau by 25 to 20 percent.

Ironically, Canadians prefer a Liberal to a Conservative government, 30 to 25 percent but with 45 percent undecided. Note that a plurality of Canadians prefers a Liberal government -- and that doesn't necessarily mean a Trudeau-led Liberal government.

Like I've said before, the minute that Trudeau expelled JWR and JP from caucus and denied them Liberal candidate status, he SEALED THE FATE of his government.

Polls will continue to reflect SNC -- barring some CPC campaign disaster -- and Conservative support will slowly and steadily solidify right up until election day.

The 2019 election will go into the history books as The SNC Election and Justin Trudeau will bear sole responsibility for a Liberal defeat.

And to think that Norman is waiting in the wings, to further erode Liberal support between now and voting day. The Liberals are done.

Trudeau And Constance Bay Flooding.

It seems to me that when any prime minister comes out to your community to encourage and thank volunteers, the least you can do is be polite.

That man blew up based on entirely wrong facts -- Trudeau's security detail did not block or delay traffic.

What Trudeau and his sons were doing is the Canadian thing to do. That man should have known better.

If his allegations had been accurate, I would have happily taken his side -- but they weren't.

Trudeau may not be universally loved these days but he and his family deserved better than what they got.

Sexism.

This post, believe me, has something to do with politics and women keen on entering that world.

We always go on about getting into politics-- or law for that matter -- to make a difference. How trite, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Sexism is not a war or even a series of well won victories. It's an everyday challenge with lapses and recoveries.

The road for men to true feminism is a difficult one. My own evolution started at a law society meeting some years ago.

I distinctly remember saying to a friend and male colleague how there were tellement de belles poupées dans la salle...

That comment was followed by several women lawyers in the room separately remarking how the intro of women on the dais by a man was sexist when he said how beautiful the female attorneys were.

It was at that point that my real education began as I was astonished and horrified by my own remark.

Tonight, regrettably, I slipped again on a political website. So, it continues to be a world of occasional error and effort to do much better.

I don't need to tell you how this all translates in Ottawa, or Quebec City.

Being sexist, or even patronising is a trap easy enough to fall into if one is not both vigilant and continually working on oneself. Fighting sexism is an evolution and an ongoing process.

So I understand that I'm still far away from getting there and have much work to do. But at least I'm trying, even while recognising that in itself really isn't good enough. True equality is far more demanding.

JWR AND JP: For Scheer The Clock Is Ticking.

I must say the Conservatives put on a right-good show. Fervent indignation positively oozed from each and every pore. But it also had a phoney quality to it -- that something wasn't exactly kosher in River City.

We all know about Scheer and his party's lust for power. Like any of their opposites, they are prepared to do almost anything to win next October. Further backing up JWR and JP is not top of mind -- potential seat count is. That's número uno on their agenda.

So, you would think if the Conservatives were absolutely authentic on SNC-L, that Scheer would formally announce that no CPC candidate will challenge JWR or JP come October, assuming they both run again, which is likely.

But nope. Not in a million years. They couldn't care less if they go down -- and ideally, they want them over and done with and replaced by the magical presence of Conservative MPs!

Bear in mind the above as the campaign gets underway. Keep a keen eye out for various party bullshit and then vote for the guy or gal you can stomach the most.

Maybe that's Scheer and Company and maybe it's not. Each of you gets to decide.

Two Yes Impeachment Camps.

The first is symbolised by Warren, who's like a broken record in favour. She expects the House to get going, pronto.

Warren wants Trump impeached, period. Much of the progressive left shares her view.

Contrast that with Pelosi who will only go for impeachment if the evidence is irrefutable and conviction all but certain by a Republican Senate. Put another way, why put Trump down on the mat in the House, if a Senate conviction can't be obtained?

For some Democrats, it's all about getting Trump impeached and getting it into the historical record. That's what happened to Clinton. But he ended up serving out his term anyway.

For others, what would be the point exactly of going that route, only to have the Senate acquit at trial? That's Pelosi's thinking.

For my part, I'm totally against impeachment as a general principle. The United States is now more seriously divided than ever.

Impeachment likely would be the spark that eventually prompts another civil war. That's my mindset.

So, if you end up having to deal with Trump, do it using another legal or political mechanism.

Across America, it's all about the economy and health care. That's the only way that Trump can be taken down. Most in Washington D.C. already get that.

When Destiny Threw JWR A Curve Ball.

As the story goes, as told by her Dad, Jody Wilson-Raybould will one day be Prime Minister of Canada.

Do I doubt the veracity of that story? No. Seemingly, it was part of her informal Liberal plan -- her goals and eventual ambition.  Nothing wrong with that. But then she met Trudeau and the rest is now party history.

Do I think people will make nice with Jody or Jane after defeat smacks the Liberals right in the face? Nope.

That's why Philpott is on to the right idea in talking, particularly to the NDP. In short, what Notley managed in AB, JP or JWR could also on the federal scene.

So, after a period of suitable reflection, I hope Jody moves on to bigger and likely better things with the New Democrats.

Think it over like you've never done about anything else -- and then as the trademark roars, Just Do It.

Prepare for an eventual leadership run, and know that you will have the support of countless Canadians, including this one. (And start NOW on your French.)

Un nouveau parti. Ce n'est que partie remise.

Want To Know My Political Philosophy?

FULL DISCLOSURE: I'm a member in "some" standing of the Liberal Party of Canada.

In short, I certainly don't believe that all Conservatives are devils, all NDPers saints, or all Liberals opportunists.

How's that?

Dumping All Illegals In Sanctuary Cities. Right...

This proves that Trump knows squat about being an American...does he really think that he can get California Sanctuary Cities to bend to his will?

I mean, get real man. Remember Don't Tread On Me? That basically sums it up. This bullshit will only strengthen the resolve of Sanctuary Cities.

Trump should know that. In this high stakes drama of life and death, his politics loses in the end.

Trump remains convinced he can ride immigration to a resounding second term win. Guess again,  Mr. President.

Do I Know Trump?

Nielsen. Note that the Trump tweet said she was leaving. Then they reported she resigned. Did she really? There's a letter but.

And on the big picture: they're saying Republicans and others will revolt and that's why Trump won't in the end close the southern  border...in Trumpspeak, I'll bet my future slots wins that when push comes to shove, Trump sure as hell will. Should he? Nope. But Trump won't want to look weak in the eyes of our Latin American allies.

Like I said, let's see if I know Trump.

2019 And 2020: About REAL Empaths.

There are two kinds of empaths: truly genuine and manufactured phoney. Both kinds have spectacularly won elections. But those who aren't the real deal, don't and won't win re-election.

What all parties need is another secret weapon -- who used to go by the name Bill Clinton. Clinton sweat empathy -- something that Hillary could never master -- and that hurt her candidacy.

Big political problems arise when the phoney kind gets unmasked by the voting public. Once disillusioned, the public holds firm and throws you out of office. If you're only aspiring, reality becomes brutal fast -- think Hart, Edwards, etc.

So, going into 2019 and 2020, big problems for incumbents lie ahead: Trudeau, who has gone out of his way to self-destruct and Trump, who pushes an immigration narrative designed to deliberately divide and set one group against another.

That's a huge opening for the right kind of Democrat and less so, for an already entrenched Scheer. People want to vote their comfort zone. Can they really do that now?

The Scheer-Raitt-O-Bullshit-Meter.

The Conservatives are as good at theatre and phony outrage as the Liberals...they know like them how to get holier than thou without any actual true convictions.

So let's put cinema Scheer-Raitt to the test: how long will it take before Scheer announces that the CPC will not run a candidate against JWR and JP in the next election?

If like me, you think that all parties and politicians are basically the same, then don't hold your damned breath -- just in case.

Today Was A Day That Made History.

Today wasn't so much a day about the political machinations up in Ottawa.

Rather, it was all about Canada and Canadians. How we see ourselves, what we expect as Canadians and where we're going.

Today's events were like watching air slowly escape from a balloon.

You got out of it what you put in. Canada changed today, with a lot of us left wanting.

Once again, we lost more of our pride, confidence and fun-loving innocence.

Canada changed today and not for the better.