Two things about Trump: not exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer but up until now strategically brilliant tactics-wise.
It's dishonourable to play a quite deliberate fear card against immigrants or nation-states but it fucking works!
It's catering to our worse angels and it not only consolidates but also expands the base. Plus those people can literally be counted on on voting day. So, looks great for re-election cause more people dislike or hate Trump but lots don't vote. (Just ask Hillary about Bernie's people's turn out. But I digress.)
Where Trump starts literally sweating is if the Goldilocks economy goes south -- coupled with an inverted yield curve. Both of those are now
R-E-A-L-I-T-Y so Trump had better start shitting.
That's the giant elephant in the room and no one feels it more than Trump. He's got no choice but to keep taking on China (and others) but he can see the electoral dividends slowly slipping away.
His good friend Xi is not an actual reformer and will do whatever it takes to stay in power. Xi is all about maintaining Communist Party totalitarian control and Trump can do zip about that.
That's why Hong Kong will be the next Tiananmen Square. Xi is no Zhao. Far from it. He's all Li, on steroids. Xi is no different on tariffs. He's not about to lose face, much less capitulate to Trump's demands. That ain't good news for the already flailing Trump approval rating.
Essentially, that's the fly in the tactics ointment. 2020 isn't, in Republican circles, the lead-pipe-cinch of yesteryear. No panicking yet but plenty of sleepless nights ahead for the re-election team.
And you thought God didn't have an ironic sense of humour. Trump pretty much knows that one better than anyone else too.
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