Kinsella Does The Math: Expects Liberal Win.

I just read Kinsella in The Toronto Sun: he's done the math and expect a Liberal win.

Remember when I said quite a ways back that I have the most fun when we disagree (like on Van Jones) so here it goes: I don't think Kinsella's piece is full of shit -- far from it. Rather, I think he's too much in the electoral and polling weeds.

My contention remains that people overwhelmingly want change, period. And in my book, that means at the top of the ticket. They've given Trudeau his chance and he's been found wanting. End of story. Might turn out I'm full of shit but don't think so.

The next vote will be a change election -- not a who do I like the best contest (like most times) and that means Justin is in very serious trouble.

I think Trudeau loses and I chock it up to a degrading effect: people are disillusioned and disappointed to find out that Justin's low expectations were pretty much on target.

Translation: Scheer ain't as bright as Harper or as relatively politically savvy but what counts is he isn't Trudeau.

Clark won a minority in 79 and Scheer will best that. Put another way, the CPC and Scheer will get in, despite himself.

The public wants change. Logic follows most voters also do. So, my gut expects a sea change in federal politics. Just call it a Conservative majority. Another country simply tilting further right -- in that Canadian sort of way.