Why All These Polls Are SNC Polls, Not Ordinary Polls.

If the Léger Poll was indicative of traditional opinion polls, hope would still spring eternal for Liberals, as theoretically all polls are recoverable up until voting day.

But the Léger poll is only the first of what I would term the SNC-Lavalin polls. These polls reflect Trudeau's self-inflicted wounds -- no one but this Prime Minister is directly responsible for the Liberal slide -- Trudeau and Trudeau alone gets to wear this decline.

Léger puts Liberal support at 27 percent with Conservatives leading with 40 percent. The NDP is at 12 percent with Greens one point behind. The People's Party has 3 percent support.

In addition, Conservatives are ahead in every region except for Quebec. Thanks to Trudeau's own decisions, 65 percent of respondents are dissatisfied with this government. Ditto for best prime minister where Scheer leads Trudeau by 25 to 20 percent.

Ironically, Canadians prefer a Liberal to a Conservative government, 30 to 25 percent but with 45 percent undecided. Note that a plurality of Canadians prefers a Liberal government -- and that doesn't necessarily mean a Trudeau-led Liberal government.

Like I've said before, the minute that Trudeau expelled JWR and JP from caucus and denied them Liberal candidate status, he SEALED THE FATE of his government.

Polls will continue to reflect SNC -- barring some CPC campaign disaster -- and Conservative support will slowly and steadily solidify right up until election day.

The 2019 election will go into the history books as The SNC Election and Justin Trudeau will bear sole responsibility for a Liberal defeat.

And to think that Norman is waiting in the wings, to further erode Liberal support between now and voting day. The Liberals are done.

Trudeau And Constance Bay Flooding.

It seems to me that when any prime minister comes out to your community to encourage and thank volunteers, the least you can do is be polite.

That man blew up based on entirely wrong facts -- Trudeau's security detail did not block or delay traffic.

What Trudeau and his sons were doing is the Canadian thing to do. That man should have known better.

If his allegations had been accurate, I would have happily taken his side -- but they weren't.

Trudeau may not be universally loved these days but he and his family deserved better than what they got.

Sexism.

This post, believe me, has something to do with politics and women keen on entering that world.

We always go on about getting into politics-- or law for that matter -- to make a difference. How trite, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Sexism is not a war or even a series of well won victories. It's an everyday challenge with lapses and recoveries.

The road for men to true feminism is a difficult one. My own evolution started at a law society meeting some years ago.

I distinctly remember saying to a friend and male colleague how there were tellement de belles poupées dans la salle...

That comment was followed by several women lawyers in the room separately remarking how the intro of women on the dais by a man was sexist when he said how beautiful the female attorneys were.

It was at that point that my real education began as I was astonished and horrified by my own remark.

Tonight, regrettably, I slipped again on a political website. So, it continues to be a world of occasional error and effort to do much better.

I don't need to tell you how this all translates in Ottawa, or Quebec City.

Being sexist, or even patronising is a trap easy enough to fall into if one is not both vigilant and continually working on oneself. Fighting sexism is an evolution and an ongoing process.

So I understand that I'm still far away from getting there and have much work to do. But at least I'm trying, even while recognising that in itself really isn't good enough. True equality is far more demanding.

JWR AND JP: For Scheer The Clock Is Ticking.

I must say the Conservatives put on a right-good show. Fervent indignation positively oozed from each and every pore. But it also had a phoney quality to it -- that something wasn't exactly kosher in River City.

We all know about Scheer and his party's lust for power. Like any of their opposites, they are prepared to do almost anything to win next October. Further backing up JWR and JP is not top of mind -- potential seat count is. That's número uno on their agenda.

So, you would think if the Conservatives were absolutely authentic on SNC-L, that Scheer would formally announce that no CPC candidate will challenge JWR or JP come October, assuming they both run again, which is likely.

But nope. Not in a million years. They couldn't care less if they go down -- and ideally, they want them over and done with and replaced by the magical presence of Conservative MPs!

Bear in mind the above as the campaign gets underway. Keep a keen eye out for various party bullshit and then vote for the guy or gal you can stomach the most.

Maybe that's Scheer and Company and maybe it's not. Each of you gets to decide.

Two Yes Impeachment Camps.

The first is symbolised by Warren, who's like a broken record in favour. She expects the House to get going, pronto.

Warren wants Trump impeached, period. Much of the progressive left shares her view.

Contrast that with Pelosi who will only go for impeachment if the evidence is irrefutable and conviction all but certain by a Republican Senate. Put another way, why put Trump down on the mat in the House, if a Senate conviction can't be obtained?

For some Democrats, it's all about getting Trump impeached and getting it into the historical record. That's what happened to Clinton. But he ended up serving out his term anyway.

For others, what would be the point exactly of going that route, only to have the Senate acquit at trial? That's Pelosi's thinking.

For my part, I'm totally against impeachment as a general principle. The United States is now more seriously divided than ever.

Impeachment likely would be the spark that eventually prompts another civil war. That's my mindset.

So, if you end up having to deal with Trump, do it using another legal or political mechanism.

Across America, it's all about the economy and health care. That's the only way that Trump can be taken down. Most in Washington D.C. already get that.

When Destiny Threw JWR A Curve Ball.

As the story goes, as told by her Dad, Jody Wilson-Raybould will one day be Prime Minister of Canada.

Do I doubt the veracity of that story? No. Seemingly, it was part of her informal Liberal plan -- her goals and eventual ambition.  Nothing wrong with that. But then she met Trudeau and the rest is now party history.

Do I think people will make nice with Jody or Jane after defeat smacks the Liberals right in the face? Nope.

That's why Philpott is on to the right idea in talking, particularly to the NDP. In short, what Notley managed in AB, JP or JWR could also on the federal scene.

So, after a period of suitable reflection, I hope Jody moves on to bigger and likely better things with the New Democrats.

Think it over like you've never done about anything else -- and then as the trademark roars, Just Do It.

Prepare for an eventual leadership run, and know that you will have the support of countless Canadians, including this one. (And start NOW on your French.)

Un nouveau parti. Ce n'est que partie remise.

Want To Know My Political Philosophy?

FULL DISCLOSURE: I'm a member in "some" standing of the Liberal Party of Canada.

In short, I certainly don't believe that all Conservatives are devils, all NDPers saints, or all Liberals opportunists.

How's that?

Dumping All Illegals In Sanctuary Cities. Right...

This proves that Trump knows squat about being an American...does he really think that he can get California Sanctuary Cities to bend to his will?

I mean, get real man. Remember Don't Tread On Me? That basically sums it up. This bullshit will only strengthen the resolve of Sanctuary Cities.

Trump should know that. In this high stakes drama of life and death, his politics loses in the end.

Trump remains convinced he can ride immigration to a resounding second term win. Guess again,  Mr. President.

Do I Know Trump?

Nielsen. Note that the Trump tweet said she was leaving. Then they reported she resigned. Did she really? There's a letter but.

And on the big picture: they're saying Republicans and others will revolt and that's why Trump won't in the end close the southern  border...in Trumpspeak, I'll bet my future slots wins that when push comes to shove, Trump sure as hell will. Should he? Nope. But Trump won't want to look weak in the eyes of our Latin American allies.

Like I said, let's see if I know Trump.

2019 And 2020: About REAL Empaths.

There are two kinds of empaths: truly genuine and manufactured phoney. Both kinds have spectacularly won elections. But those who aren't the real deal, don't and won't win re-election.

What all parties need is another secret weapon -- who used to go by the name Bill Clinton. Clinton sweat empathy -- something that Hillary could never master -- and that hurt her candidacy.

Big political problems arise when the phoney kind gets unmasked by the voting public. Once disillusioned, the public holds firm and throws you out of office. If you're only aspiring, reality becomes brutal fast -- think Hart, Edwards, etc.

So, going into 2019 and 2020, big problems for incumbents lie ahead: Trudeau, who has gone out of his way to self-destruct and Trump, who pushes an immigration narrative designed to deliberately divide and set one group against another.

That's a huge opening for the right kind of Democrat and less so, for an already entrenched Scheer. People want to vote their comfort zone. Can they really do that now?

The Scheer-Raitt-O-Bullshit-Meter.

The Conservatives are as good at theatre and phony outrage as the Liberals...they know like them how to get holier than thou without any actual true convictions.

So let's put cinema Scheer-Raitt to the test: how long will it take before Scheer announces that the CPC will not run a candidate against JWR and JP in the next election?

If like me, you think that all parties and politicians are basically the same, then don't hold your damned breath -- just in case.

Today Was A Day That Made History.

Today wasn't so much a day about the political machinations up in Ottawa.

Rather, it was all about Canada and Canadians. How we see ourselves, what we expect as Canadians and where we're going.

Today's events were like watching air slowly escape from a balloon.

You got out of it what you put in. Canada changed today, with a lot of us left wanting.

Once again, we lost more of our pride, confidence and fun-loving innocence.

Canada changed today and not for the better.